Jesse Kenner Mortgage Blog

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Bank Reposessions Reach Record Levels For The Second Straight Month

Foreclosure concentration, by state (May 2010)

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, bank repossessions reached record levels for the second straight month in May, topping 93,000 properties nationwide.

As compared to May 2009, all 50 states now show an increase in annual REO activity.

Data like that won’t surprise today’s active home buyers. Foreclosed homes are prevalent, available and accounted for one-third of all home resales made in April.

Furthermore, total foreclosure actions — the sum of REO, default notices, and foreclosure auctions in May — topped 300,000 for the 15th straight month.

Foreclosures remain a huge influence on the housing market.

However, two interesting trends emerged in the data:

  1. 9 of the top 10 metro areas for foreclosure posted annual activity decreases
  2. Each of the top 4 states for Foreclosures per Household posted annual activity decreases

We can infer, therefore, that foreclosure activity may be in permanent decline in the areas hardest hit through 2007, 2008, and 2009. In 2010, the data shows, foreclosures are waning.

This is reason for optimism — especially as FHA delinquencies slow nationwide. As fewer homeowners go delinquent, the pace of foreclosures will slow further and that should help boost home values on every block in the country.

If you’ve been considered bank-owned homes for your own purchase, give a look at the RealtyTrac foreclosure report. It’s provides insight on a state-by-state level, and in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.

Then, to complement your research, talk to your real estate about the foreclosure market and what opportunities may exist. Competition for bank-owned homes can be fierce at times, but there’s plenty of “deals” out there.

You just have to know where to look.

Conforming Loan Costs Are Rising, Says Freddie Mac

Mortgage discount points are risingMortgage rates may be dropping, but mortgage costs are not.

According to Freddie Mac, the average required discount points on a conforming mortgage rate are higher by 0.1 percent since early-May.

A “discount point” is prepaid mortgage interest; an up-front fee paid by a borrower in exchange for a lower mortgage rate. In most cases, discount points are tax-deductible.

Tax-deductible or not, though, rising costs are rising costs and Freddie Mac glosses over it. In its weekly press release, the government group offers mortgage rate comparisons to weeks prior, but doesn’t do the same for required points.

The press fails to mention discount points entirely.

An increase of 1/10 percent in discount points costs homebuyers and refinancing households an extra $100 per $100,000 borrowed.

The hike reminds us that there’s more to a mortgage than just its rate — costs matter, too. And if you’ve only been watching the headlines, you would have missed how costs are rising.

Fannie Mae’s Loan Quality Initiative : Repulling Your Credit Just Before Closing

Fannie Mae adds credit repullsA new loan quality initiative from Fannie Mae is making it harder for home buyers and refinancing homeowners everywhere to close on a mortgage.

Beginning June 1, 2010, with all new applications, Fannie Mae wants lenders to verify that borrowers have not taken on new debt during the underwriting phase of the mortgage.

If new debts are found, the mortgage is subject to a re-underwrite and a possible turndown.

For Fannie Mae, the goal is to reduce the number of loans that go bad because of new, non-disclosed debt. Lenders have the freedom to verify in whatever manner they wish, but in most cases, the verification process will amount to a credit re-pull made just prior to closing.

The underwriters will be looking for 3 things in particular — even after your loan is approved.

First, your updated credit report will show your current credit card bills and minimum monthly payments. Those numbers will replace your original numbers made at the time of application. If the debts exceed a certain threshold, your loan will be denied.

Second, underwriters will be looking at your updated credit score. If your FICO has dropped below minimum lending standards, your loan will be denied. Or, you may be subject to a new loan-level pricing adjustment.

Loan level pricing adjustments are mandatory loan fee based on your credit score.

And, lastly, underwriters will be looking at your credit report’s Credit Inquiry section. The goal is to see if you’ve been applying for credit elsewhere. Underwriters can use this information at their discretion.

Fannie Mae’s Loan Quality Initiative is just one more way that the government-backed group is trying to improve its loan pools. Unfortunately, it’ll mean more turndowns for mortgage applicants.

Therefore, take extra care of your credit between the time of application and the time of closing. Don’t buy new cars, don’t buy new appliances, and — most definitely — don’t open new credit cards. Be extra safe with your credit because a mortgage application that’s supposedly cleared-to-close can be revoked at the eleventh hour.

When in doubt, talk to your loan officer about what may or may not trigger the Loan Quality Initiative. Your loan approval is at stake.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 7, 2010

Non-Farm Payrolls June 2008-May 2010Rate shoppers caught another break last week as mortgage markets improved on weak jobs data.

The May Non-Farm Payrolls report fell well short of expectations while ongoing jobless claims rose. The two combined to cast doubt on the speed of the U.S. economic recovery, hurting stocks and helping bonds.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates dropped for the fifth time in six weeks and, once again, rates are trolling back near all-time lows.

No doubt you’ve heard that before — “mortgage rates at all-time lows”. Mortgage rates have dipped to these levels four times in the last 19 months. However, on each occasion, it wasn’t long after touching bottom before rates reversed higher.

  • November 2008 : Roughly 90 minutes
  • March 2009 : Roughly 6 hours
  • May 2009 : Roughly 1 day
  • May 2010 : Roughly 3 hours

This week, rates could stay low for a matters of hours, or days — we can’t really know. Especially with no “major” data due for release. Instead, most of this week’s economic news is incidental. That means that mortgage markets will move based on trader sentiment and “gut feel”.

The good news is that the market momentum is currently in the rate shoppers’ favor. We entered the weekend with rates falling and they look poised to open Monday no worse.

Here’s a look at what’s ahead this week:

  • Monday: Consumer credit, a critical piece of consumer spending
  • Wednesday : The Beige Book, a regional economic report from the Fed
  • Thursday : Initial and continuing jobless claims
  • Friday : Retail Sales and the Consumer Sentiment report

Market sentiment is a strange animal. One minute it can be your friend and, the next, it can be your enemy. Opinions change swiftly on Wall Street and so do mortgage rates.

If you’re still not locked in, consider making your move. Rates have a lot farther to rise than they do to fall. You won’t want to be on the wrong side of the bet when rates start rising.

May 2010 Jobs Report Gives A Temporary Boost To Home Affordability

Unemployment Rate 2007-2010On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior.

The release is more commonly called “the jobs report” — a major factor in mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Especially now.

With the recession officially over and growth returning to the U.S. economy, the recovery’s next frontier is jobs. As job growth increases, home affordability should take a hit. Here’s why:

  1. As the number of working Americans increases, so should total consumer spending
  2. As consumer spending increases, so should a return to risk-taking on Wall Street
  3. As risk-taking returns to Wall Street, bond markets should start to lose

Mortgage rates, therefore, should rise.

Furthermore, as the jobs market stabilizes and recovers, renters should be more apt to buy their first home, and homeowners should be apt to up-size. More home buyers means more competition for homes and higher home prices typically follow.

Job growth can be trickle-up for housing.

Today, however, the jobs data was not so strong. According to the government, 431,000 jobs were created in May, but of those new jobs, 95.4% represented temporary staffing for the 2010 Census. The number of private-sector jobs created fell well short of expectations and Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are gaining so, therefore, rates are falling.

The May 2010 jobs report may not reflect well on the economy, but home affordability around the country is improving because of it.

Pending Home Sales Data Shows “Great Deals On Homes” Are Getting Harder To Find

Pending Home Sales Oct 2008 to April 2010The Pending Home Sales Index shot higher in April as low mortgage rates and a soon-to-expire federal tax credit spurred home buying across the county.

A “pending home sale” is a home that’s under contract to sell but not yet closed.

Region-by-region, April’s pending home sales varied versus March’s data:

  • Northeast Region: +29.5%
  • Midwest Region : +4.1%
  • South Region : -0.6% (after a +15.9% posting in March)
  • West Region : +7.5%

On an annual basis, the Pending Home Sales Index is higher by 22 percent.

April marks the third straight month that pending home sales are up and today’s buyers should take note. This is because, according to the National Association of Realtors®, 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.

In other words, May and June’s existing home sales data should be similarly strong, causing the real estate market to gently shift in favor of sellers. In fact, already, we’re seeing home resales touch multi-year highs while new home supplies fall to multi-year lows.

All of it tends to push home prices higher while simultaneously reducing buyer negotiation leverage. That, coupled with the high probability of higher mortgage rates ahead, means that finding “deals” will get tougher for the average home buyer.

In looking at the housing market data, it appears that the best month in which to have bought a home this year was February. The next best time may be right now.

Talk to your real estate agent if you’re planning to buy a home this year. It may be sensible to move up your time frame a few months.

Consumer Confidence Hints At Higher Home Prices And Higher Mortgage Rates, Too

Consumer Confidence Index May 2008-May 2010The Consumer Confidence Index is rising, a potentially double-edged sword for Americans, in general.

According to The Conference Board, economic confidence is as high as it’s been since August 2007 — 4 months before the start of the recession. Americans are optimistic again.

Confidence matters to the economy because as confidence increases, in theory, consumer spending follows. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

It’s why Wall Street is responsive to confidence data.

When consumer confidence is rising, households start to make big-ticket purchases they may have otherwise put off indefinitely. Maybe it’s a replacing old appliances; or, trading in an old automobiles; or, splurging on a vacation.

Rising confidence can also spur real estate sales.

When confidence is rising, a growing family that chose to “make do” in their 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom starter home may opt to move-up to a 4-bedroom, 3-bath instead at a slightly higher monthly carrying cost. And there are families in every city in every state making those same decisions.

As a result, the housing market gets a boost — especially in the mid-to-upper price ranges. Values rise on higher demand for homes.

The downside is that growing confidence tends to push conforming and FHA mortgage rates up. This is because an expanding economy draws investment dollars away from bonds and into stocks — including mortgage bonds.

The reduced demand for mortgage-backed bonds leads bond prices to fall and mortgage rates to rise. Sometimes by a little, sometimes by lot.

So, if you’re buying a home or thinking of a refinance, rising confidence in the economy may be a signal to act sooner rather than later. Talk to your real estate agent and/or your loan officer about next steps and get your plan in place.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 1, 2010

Non-Farm Payrolls May 2008-April 2010Mortgage markets worsened last week as concerned of a global debt crisis lessened and stock markets rebounded. The gains in stocks came at the expense of bonds — including mortgage bonds.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates rose for the first time in 5 weeks, pulling mortgage pricing off its best levels of the year.

The best mortgage rates of last week were locked Tuesday morning.

This week, mortgage rates may rise even more. In addition to the release of May’s jobs report and consumer confidence data, fears of broader economic slowdown appear to be easing.

Day-by-day, the chances of rates rising are real.

On Tuesday, a consumer confidence survey is released. Consumer confidence is linked to economic growth because 70 percent of the economy is based in consumer spending. In theory, as consumer confidence grows, the economy should, too.

Therefore, a strong reading should push mortgage rates higher.

Then, on Wednesday, Pending Home Sales and Auto Sales data is released for last month. Both items are “big ticket” and, again, reflect on consumer confidence. Strong readings should be rough on rates.

Next, on Thursday, jobless claims data hits the wires along with worker productivity stats. Normally, these two releases don’t carry much weight, but with the jobs market in focus this year, markets will be watching for clues about Friday’s big report — the May Non-Farm Payrolls.

Anything can happen when the jobs report is released.

In April, an estimated 290,000 jobs were created and, in May, economists think more than a half-million people re-entered the workforce. This is good for the economy, of course, but can drag on mortgage rates. If job growth even comes close to the 500,000 marker, mortgage rates could zoom higher.

Mortgage rates moved higher last week but are still very low. If you’ve been thinking about refinancing your mortgage, you probably shouldn’t put it off much longer. Talk to your loan officer today — the longer you wait, the more that rates can rise.

The Supply Of New Homes For Sale Just Dropped Off A Cliff

New Home Supply April 2009 - April 2010The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the housing market as we head into the summer months.

It’s no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years.

At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month’s time. That’s more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It’s a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market “repaired in full”, we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit’s April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions. Low rates don’t sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April’s new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders. As compared to February 2010, April’s average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent. That’s a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It’s no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

Should You Refinance Your Mortgage?

Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They’re at levels not seen in 50 years. For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it’s a second chance.

In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.

Some of the topics covered include:

  • Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
  • How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
  • Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?

The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered. There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won’t stay that way. If you’ve been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.